Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.515137 2.679597 2.854837 3.056409 3.283074 3.531514 3.826409
2025-03-16 2.272666 2.495090 2.744766 3.049078 3.414620 3.845889 4.403178
2025-03-23 2.142076 2.400961 2.702408 3.085709 3.569951 4.176079 5.018231
2025-03-30 2.006805 2.282066 2.610985 3.042288 3.608207 4.350076 5.444080
2025-04-06 1.895653 2.180515 2.528040 2.995370 3.628392 4.492172 5.836507
2025-04-13 1.788326 2.075008 2.430343 2.917626 3.594568 4.548970 6.103653
2025-04-20 1.740393 2.039997 2.418346 2.949501 3.710525 4.828404 6.761012
2025-04-27 1.707569 2.021300 2.424781 3.004575 3.861776 5.176255 7.602028
2025-05-04 1.677293 2.003428 2.429981 3.056497 4.011121 5.538683 8.555606
2025-05-11 1.623412 1.951168 2.384886 3.031829 4.039147 5.702449 9.163690
2025-05-18 1.575583 1.904587 2.344712 3.010786 4.069503 5.871984 9.826540
2025-05-25 1.529279 1.857931 2.301802 2.982245 4.084088 6.013549 10.465987
2025-06-01 1.486250 1.814838 2.262941 2.958975 4.108009 6.181003 11.238034
2025-06-08 1.451194 1.781353 2.236150 2.952412 4.159356 6.408637 12.253157
2025-06-15 1.430724 1.767146 2.236139 2.987116 4.284662 6.803097 13.915540
2025-06-22 1.390280 1.723228 2.190539 2.945988 4.270438 6.904094 14.739813
2025-06-29 1.351416 1.680242 2.144547 2.901524 4.246156 6.979729 15.524186
2025-07-06 1.306820 1.627768 2.082564 2.827791 4.162004 6.911092 15.773469
2025-07-13 1.292247 1.617801 2.083712 2.858030 4.275557 7.311789 18.055101
2025-07-20 1.284040 1.616574 2.097745 2.910249 4.436073 7.857072 21.483246
2025-07-27 1.275348 1.614219 2.109743 2.959449 4.595638 8.438437 25.898272
2025-08-03 1.249788 1.586245 2.080935 2.936079 4.604828 8.624586 28.358646
2025-08-10 1.226254 1.560610 2.054872 2.916137 4.619411 8.829637 31.302953